Blog - Opinion

The Jacoby Consulting Group Blog

Welcome to the Jacoby Consulting Group blog.
You will immediately notice that this blog covers a wide range of themes - in fact, whatever takes my fancy or whatever I feel strongly about that is current or topical. Although themes may relate to business, corporate or organisational issues (i.e. the core talents of JCG), they also cover issues on which JCG also feels warranted to comment, such as social issues, my books, other peoples' books and so on. You need to know that comments are moderated - not to stifle disagreement - but rather to eliminate obnoxious or incendiary comments. If a reader wishes to pursue any specific theme in more detail, specifically in relation to corporate, business or organisational issues, or in relation to my books, then the reader is invited to send an off-line email with a request. A prompt response is promised. I hope you enjoy this blog - sometimes informed, sometimes amused and sometimes empassioned. Welcome and enjoy.
JJJ

31 January 2013


September 2013 election

For whatever it's worth, my read on calling the early Australian election has three dimensions:

1. There must be a strong reason for Ms Gillard to have gone against tradition of both parties and 'gone long' on the election date. These reasons are probably not public because were they public, everyone would understand the call, and that doesn't appear to be the case.

2. There are pros and cons in the call. On balance, the argument for going long must have been huge.

3. I suspect that the decision to 'go long' was based on 'private' information. I suspect too that it's not about changing economics or similar factors because the election was pushed out rather than calling it soon before those factors could have an effect. Therefore, I deduce that the only reason that justified the 'long call' was something that would change the election dynamic.

Some have postulated that it was to defeat another leadership push by Kevin Rudd. Maybe. But I doubt it.

My gut tells me that someone knows, has heard or postulated that there was a push on Abbott's leadership before the election was called because of his catastrophic low personal rating and the view that no leader has ever won office with such low personal appeal. Despite consistent polling that predicts a strong Liberal win, some Liberals don't want to take a risk on the Abbott personality poisoning the vote - particularly with women voters.

By calling the election long, it still provides the government with recovery time, if it is able to engineer it, but it almost certainly keeps Abbott in the job as Leader of the Opposition because almost any other leader would garner stronger personal support and virtually guarantee a Liberal win. Changing leadership after the election is called would probably be political suicide - maybe not, but who would be prepared to take the chance?

Counter-intuitively, Abbott in his current role is the best thing going for the Labor Government at the moment.

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23 December 2012


The Australian budget surplus

How tragic is the Australian political landscape when a government is caned for doing the right thing?

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17 December 2012


Australian politics

The Australian political experience is that people vote governments out rather than voting governments in.

On that basis, Tony Abbott is expected to win the next election.

What exactly are his policies? Unless we know, I believe that Australians will be in for a very rude shock in education, health, migration, environment, climate change, industrial relations, telecommunications, and many other areas.

If Australians vote out the Gillard Government to get an Abbot Government without knowing the policies that will come with it, then they deserve the inevitable pain that will result.

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25 May 2012


State of our democracy

Regardless of which side of Australian politics you support, it is hard to deny the appalling state of our democracy. Granted, this deplorable situation is arguably the fault of our "Hung Parliament" status, yet without that condition, we see a serious deterioration of democratic principles.

Firstly we have a government that indisputably promises outcomes that it can't or won't deliver, because the delivery of those outcomes jeopardises its hold on power. Even when it passes legislation, it struggles to implement that legislation in a painless, efficient and effective manner.

The constituency has lost faith in the government because of its back-flips and apparent inability to implement effectively.

Secondly, we have an opposition that is akin to a marauding pack of hungry, power-obsessed, salivating kill-dogs. They encircle their prey and wait for any excuse to attack the weakest as it totters from the pack - mauling it without consideration, compassion or fact.

If one observes these rightist, doctrinaire Neanderthals, one can't help but be petrified at the prospects of these people taking power.

As it stands at the moment, who knows how far from an election, it appears that not only will these people take power, but will take it with ease and with a large majority. That means that they will be able to legislate what-ever their inhumane and unevolved hearts desire.

Looking from a constituent's perspective - one can't help but be appalled as one observes the antics of both parties.

Thirdly, you have the media. They too have corrupted the principles of a free and unconstrained press that should be at the foundation of a true democracy. A democracy where the constituency is given fact upon which it deliberates and then chooses its leaders and thus its government. How effective can this process be when fact is denied and self-serving interest is promoted. Media's beying for this government to fall is so blatant that it is sickening.

The media defends itself by claiming as its duty (much like the Opposition) to hold the government to account. True, but that is not what it is doing. It is presenting selective choice of elements of a situation as "fact", and upon those "facts", it provides opinion - which coincidentally, happens to serve the media (or at least the owners and supporters of the media.)

Good social order requires a government with a balanced, centrist perspective (of what-ever hue) that sees as its reason d'etre, the betterment of all members of society. In order for that to occur, society needs a equally balanced, fair and reasonable media. Australia currently fails on all counts.

My conclusions are these:

1. Australia will soon enter a repressive and backward political era in which repressive and discriminatory legislation will be enacted - particularly targeting migrants, the poor and unemployed and the disabled. Education will also suffer.

2. As a result of the inevitable moves to suppress labour and grant "business" huge concessions, industrial unrest will reach an all-time high.

3. Economic performance will in fact deteriorate as a result of social unrest and mistrust of both government and business governance.

4. The corporate sector, aided by lax and "blind" regulatory proceesses, will use the opportunity to extract unreasonable benefits and priveleges - thus fueling labour frustration. The new government will have no appetite for constraining the excesses of the corporate sector and we will see the re-emergence of the conditions that saw the recent GFC.

Ultimately, the Australian constituency will get what it votes for - and will deserve whatever it gets - a punishment for being so short-sighted and blatantly stupid.

I would much prefer a less that perfect government trying to do the right thing, than a morally bankrupt government doing everything perfectly.

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