Tony Abbott has decided to break convention by allowing Cabinet Papers from a previous government to be accessed and made public through a royal commission; arguably for 'establishing the truth' but more likely for blatant political motives.

I would expect that when a Labor government eventually gets back into power, you'll see the 'Children Overboard' Cabinet Papers being made public too.

What goes around comes around. 

There is little doubt that the Indonesian Government was aware that Australia was 'observing' it and others in the region. In the same manner, Indonesia undoubtedly observes Australia and others.

Both of these realities probably long pre-date both incumbent governments.

The current mess appears to have been caused by two significant factors.

1. Australia bugged SBY - the President and his wife among other senior government officials. No wonder he's pissed off. That signals that Australia doesn't trust him, and/or that Australia thinks the maintenance of Indonesia's relationship with Australia isn't a priority for him and his government.

During SBY's Presidency, all Australian Prime Ministers have gone out of their way (and rightly so) to build trust and a relationship upon which both people and both countries could rely. There was and still is a lot at stake - all now in jeopardy.

I don't think that SBY is particularly surprised by the spying - however I think he is insulted and hurt by it. With an election on the horizon, he needs to react in a suitable, publicly acceptable manner - and he can't be blamed for this, particularly when Tony Abbott's behaviour (and that of his advisors and minders) is also driven by their perception of public opinion (i.e. delivering the stupid pre-election promises).

2. Abbott and Bishop's hopeless handling of the matter hasn't helped. How is it that when the US bugged Germany's Angela Merkel, President Obama had a personal conversation with her, presumably pledged that it wouldn't happen again, and the whole matter appears to have 'blown over'?

Now that's powerful, sophisticated and effective diplomacy - clearly beyond the capability of Australia's current government.

To Indonesia I say, please be patient and understand that you are dealing with a very weak and unintelligent government that is drunk with testosterone that makes it impossible for it to 'do subtlety'.

This will pass with time. A new President will emerge after the Indonesian elections that will allow Indonesia to reapproach Australia with some stringent 'rules for an effective and renewed relationship.' Australia will agree because Abbott needs to be seen as being able to recover from this disaster. Cooperation will be re-established between the countries on refugee boats, live animal exports and military cooperation.

The people in the street will forget, but governments won't. It will take Australia a long time to recover from this.

For whatever it's worth, my read on calling the early Australian election has three dimensions:

1. There must be a strong reason for Ms Gillard to have gone against tradition of both parties and 'gone long' on the election date. These reasons are probably not public because were they public, everyone would understand the call, and that doesn't appear to be the case.

2. There are pros and cons in the call. On balance, the argument for going long must have been huge.

3. I suspect that the decision to 'go long' was based on 'private' information. I suspect too that it's not about changing economics or similar factors because the election was pushed out rather than calling it soon before those factors could have an effect. Therefore, I deduce that the only reason that justified the 'long call' was something that would change the election dynamic.

Some have postulated that it was to defeat another leadership push by Kevin Rudd. Maybe. But I doubt it.

My gut tells me that someone knows, has heard or postulated that there was a push on Abbott's leadership before the election was called because of his catastrophic low personal rating and the view that no leader has ever won office with such low personal appeal. Despite consistent polling that predicts a strong Liberal win, some Liberals don't want to take a risk on the Abbott personality poisoning the vote - particularly with women voters.

By calling the election long, it still provides the government with recovery time, if it is able to engineer it, but it almost certainly keeps Abbott in the job as Leader of the Opposition because almost any other leader would garner stronger personal support and virtually guarantee a Liberal win. Changing leadership after the election is called would probably be political suicide - maybe not, but who would be prepared to take the chance?

Counter-intuitively, Abbott in his current role is the best thing going for the Labor Government at the moment.

The Australian political experience is that people vote governments out rather than voting governments in.

On that basis, Tony Abbott is expected to win the next election.

What exactly are his policies? Unless we know, I believe that Australians will be in for a very rude shock in education, health, migration, environment, climate change, industrial relations, telecommunications, and many other areas.

If Australians vote out the Gillard Government to get an Abbot Government without knowing the policies that will come with it, then they deserve the inevitable pain that will result.