For whatever it's worth, my read on calling the early Australian election has three dimensions:

1. There must be a strong reason for Ms Gillard to have gone against tradition of both parties and 'gone long' on the election date. These reasons are probably not public because were they public, everyone would understand the call, and that doesn't appear to be the case.

2. There are pros and cons in the call. On balance, the argument for going long must have been huge.

3. I suspect that the decision to 'go long' was based on 'private' information. I suspect too that it's not about changing economics or similar factors because the election was pushed out rather than calling it soon before those factors could have an effect. Therefore, I deduce that the only reason that justified the 'long call' was something that would change the election dynamic.

Some have postulated that it was to defeat another leadership push by Kevin Rudd. Maybe. But I doubt it.

My gut tells me that someone knows, has heard or postulated that there was a push on Abbott's leadership before the election was called because of his catastrophic low personal rating and the view that no leader has ever won office with such low personal appeal. Despite consistent polling that predicts a strong Liberal win, some Liberals don't want to take a risk on the Abbott personality poisoning the vote - particularly with women voters.

By calling the election long, it still provides the government with recovery time, if it is able to engineer it, but it almost certainly keeps Abbott in the job as Leader of the Opposition because almost any other leader would garner stronger personal support and virtually guarantee a Liberal win. Changing leadership after the election is called would probably be political suicide - maybe not, but who would be prepared to take the chance?

Counter-intuitively, Abbott in his current role is the best thing going for the Labor Government at the moment.